Electoral Formula and Fragmentation in Hong Kong

The directly elected representatives to Hong Kong's Legislative Council are chosen by list proportional representation using the Hare Quota and Largest Remainders formula. This formula rewards political alliances of small-to-moderate size and discourages broader unions. Hong Kong's political leaders have responded to those incentives by fragmenting their electoral alliances rather than expanding them. Alternative formulas are available that would generate incentives to form inclusive, encompassing alliances – indeed, most countries that use proportional representation employ such formulas. Changing the electoral formula will not resolve Hong Kong's formidable divisions over representation and electoral reform. However, the improvements available from reforming the formula may have been overshadowed by recent debates over direct elections for the chief executive and functional constituencies. Reform of the formula could yield important improvements in legislative representation and provide a foundation for cooperation on subsequent reform issues in the future. DRAFT: December 18, 2015